Melbourne Cup 2019: Predicted finish for all 24 runners – Herald Sun
Finding the Melbourne Cup winner has never been easy but this year’s race is the hardest of them all.
There are several runners who have the ability to win Australia’s greatest staying race, yet there can only be one that comes out on top.
The past two Cups have been won by internationals straight off the plane — Rekindling and Cross Counter — and I’m predicting that will happen again.
However, bookmakers are anticipating the Caulfield Cup form will have a major bearing on the result with Mer De Glace, Constantinople, Finche and Vow And Declare the top four in the market.
Constantinople, along with Aidan O’Brien’s Il Paradiso, fit the profile of the last two Cup winners as a northern hemisphere three-year-olds.
Last year’s winner Cross Counter is coming out of the Irish St Leger, which also the lead-up race for Southern France, Latrobe, Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment.
Surprise Baby will be a popular winner and Prince Of Arran, third last year, is back for another title.
Here is my predicted Melbourne Cup finishing order:
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Some of the best Melbourne Cup lead-up runs
Horse Racing: Need help finding a winner? We take a look at some of the best lead-up runs by the top chances for the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
1. SOUTHERN FRANCE
The import, now with Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, won the Irish St Leger Trial by two lengths ahead of Downdraft (commanding winner of the Hotham Stakes) before placing in the Irish St Leger, ahead of Cross Counter.
VERDICT: Has rediscovered his best form at the right time to be a leading chance.
2. CROSS COUNTER
Last year’s champ will have to carry 6.5kg more but he’s a stronger horse, which should compensate for the extra weight. Boasts arguably the best overseas form behind staying superstar Stradivarius.
VERDICT: Faces a great challenge to go back-to-back but he has the class to do it.
3. CONSTANTINOPLE
The Hayes import ran into dead ends in the Caulfield Cup and was shuffled back in the field, then was nearly knocked over in the straight but still picked himself to hit the line strongly and snatch fourth.
VERDICT: A huge chance and he’s drawn a perfect barrier.
4. IL PARADISO
Will attempt to emulate the past two Melbourne Cup champs as a northern hemisphere three-year-old winner. He was beaten narrowly by the world’s best stayer Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup over 3250m in August before running fifth in the GB St Leger, which ties in the Constantinople form.
VERDICT: Has to be respected if recent history is a guide.
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5. PRINCE OF ARRAN
The Geelong Cup winner is yet to run a bad race in Australia but has had to earn his place in the Cup. One of the few international runners who flourishes the more he races.
VERDICT: Won in fast time at Geelong and another top-three result is possible.
6. VOW AND DECLARE
The Caulfield Cup runner-up was beaten by a better horse but there was more pressure in this race than what he felt in the Turnbull Stakes which he’ll benefit from. Won over 3000m at Eagle Farm in June.
VERDICT: A lot has to go right from the barrier but he’s the best local hope.
7. FINCHE
Endured a wide run in the Caulfield Cup and was left exposed at the top of the straight. He’s a big, grinding horse that will prefer Flemington and his fourth in last year’s Cup shows he’s up to the task.
VERDICT: Set to run a big race and will go close.
8. LATROBE
Ran in the Mackinnon Stakes (second) last spring instead of the Cup. He was runner-up in the Irish St Leger in 2018 but finished midfield in this year’s race against other Cup candidates.
VERDICT: In the mix for the top 10 but barrier hurts.
9. MER DE GLACE
The Japanese raider won his sixth race in a row after adding the Caulfield Cup to his record. All those runs have been between 2000-2400m and at least a month gap in between.
VERDICT: Can’t knock winning form but has to be a risk at the distance, especially as the favourite.
10. SURPRISE BABY
A well-laid plan was executed when the rising stayer secured his ticket into the Cup after winning The Bart Cummings. Won the 3200m Adelaide Cup earlier this year.
VERDICT: Will need to go up a level to compete against the imports and internationals. Top 10 would be a great achievement.
11. MASTER OF REALITY
Started the year with a narrow win over Mustajeer, Southern France and Twilight Payment in the Vintage Crop in April but the latter pair have beaten him convincingly since. Fifth in the Irish St Leger last start after doing a lot of work up front.
VERDICT: May lack the turn of foot to win but will be competitive.
12. RAYMOND TUSK
Saved for the Melbourne Cup after he wasn’t accepted for the Caulfield Cup. His effort to finish fourth in the Ebor from near last was incredible.
VERDICT: Has flown under the radar but expecting a bold run.
13. MUSTAJEER
Sixth in the Caulfield Cup after claiming the Ebor Handicap in August. He finished three lengths behind Twilight Payment and Latrobe the start before the Ebor, and a close second to Master Of Reality in the Vintage Crop in April.
VERDICT: Better suited up in distance but might be too dour.
14. TWILIGHT PAYMENT
Led all the way and fought off Latrobe (runner-up in last year’s Mackinnon Stakes) to win the Curragh Cup before he was bought by Lloyd Williams. He was a run short in the Irish St Leger when seventh after changing stables.
VERDICT: Not the worst going around with form around the leading European contenders.
15. DOWNDRAFT
Showed what he’s capable of with a stunning win in the Hotham Stakes after the Moonee Valley Gold Cup wasn’t run at a suitable tempo.
VERDICT: Three starts in 11 days will be a big ask.
16. MAGIC WAND
Did exceptionally well to hang on for fourth in the Cox Plate but his form suggests 2200-2400m is his maximum distance.
VERDICT: Big query whether she will stay the trip.
17. MIRAGE DANCER
The Caulfield Cup placegetter has been remarkably consistent but in lower-level races in Europe. All five starts this year has been at 2400m so the Cup distance could stretch him.
VERDICT: There are better-credentialed raiders, particularly at 3200m.
18. HUNTING HORN
Won a slowly run Moonee Valley Gold Cup and has been a regular pacemaker for some of Europe’s distinguished stayers.
VERDICT: Not in the same league as most of the raiders here.
19. YOUNGSTAR
Her performance in last year’s Cup was outstanding when sixth but has struggled since. She was stiff not to finish closer last start in the St Leger, although that isn’t the strongest formline.
VERDICT: Her form has dipped and this year’s race has more depth.
20. STEEL PRINCE
Needed the run in the Geelong Cup after he was scratched at the barriers before the Herbert Power. Has been ridden back in all three runs this prep to gradually build his fitness for the main race.
VERDICT: Campaign has unravelled after his untimely setback.
21. ROSTROPOVICH
Had a nightmare run in the Caulfield Cup but recent performances don’t indicate he can match last year’s fifth placing.
VERDICT: A similar result won’t happen this time.
22. THE CHOSEN ONE
The Kiwi defeated Prince Of Arran in the Herbert Power but was undone by the wide barrier in the Caulfield Cup and then struggled in the Hotham on Saturday.
VERDICT: Has lost form and the 3200m is a question mark.
23. SOUND
His past two efforts in the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup have been more respectable but he’s been a big disappointment since relocating from Germany.
VERDICT: Ruling him out.
24. NEUFBOSC
A Group 1 runner-up in France but, like Sound, hasn’t brought his overseas form here.
VERDICT: Can’t win.