Dickey: Betting Friday night’s Turfway Park Pick 5 on a budget – Horse Racing Nation

There are many things to like about No. 7 Regal Look. The gelding gets a positive jockey change to Luan Machado, he just missed last out at Turfway Park earlier this month, and he has a legitimate excuse in his most recent start as he missed the break.

The only knock is that he’s going from a sprint to a 1 1/16-mile route, but he’s won one race in three tries at this distance. At 5-1 on the morning line, I’d be happy with 5-2 come post time.

There’s a pretty good chance that No. 8 Crypto will be a big favorite in the second race of the night, and there is plenty to like.

He’ll be forwardly placed in a sprint, trainer Wesley Ward is a Turfway Park stalwart, and jockey Gerardo Corrales has won on half of the four mounts he’s ridden in the meet so far. The 2-year old gelding is dropping in class from a notable time maiden special weight race, albeit from six months ago. He comes in off a bullet work, and he’ll be well-bet.

The horse I like even better than the presumed post-time favorite is No. 5 Celtic Mischief. He was well-beaten in his debut in a race won by Kentucky Derby hopeful Maxfield. He followed that non-effort up with a better showing at Keeneland next out before dropping to the maiden claiming ranks last month at Churchill Downs.

This one has shown improvement, was a beaten favorite last out, and is in a better spot in the form cycle than Crypto. He’ll be forwardly placed with Crypto, and has the benefit of cutting back in distance.

There’s a chance we can have consecutive 5-2 odds winners to start the Pick 5. If we get past the first two legs, it’ll be easier as we go.

I’ll go three deep here, starting with a hard-knocking, 7-year-old gelding racing second off a layoff for a new barn. Jockey Albin Jimenez won’t have to listen to trainer Charlie Livers’ pre-race instructions for long, because Jrock will be best used going to the front in a six-furlong sprint.

If we can’t win the third race with the frontrunner, No. 8 Cedar Creek is a usable back-up who is dropping in class after a respectable showing against tougher in a mile race at Churchill Downs at the end of November. Although he’s never won at six panels, he did tire near the end of his mile run at Churchill, so he should appreciate the cutback here.

I have to use No. 11 Ambidextrous Alex again in this spot, too, as I liked him last out at Turfway Park earlier this month when disappointed. I like that he’s won four times at Turfway in the past, and jockey John McKee is heating up early in the meet.

While I think the winner is most likely Jrock, the other two are logical.

If No. 13 Levanto draws in to this race, he’s my top pick in the fourth. I don’t often like horses trying Turfway Park or synthetic tracks for the first time, but this one comes in to the race in fine form. That can overcome many question marks.

If Levanto does not draw in, we’ll go four deep. No. 5 Lil Mateo has one win in two tries but is making his Turfway debut. Jockey Joe Rocco Jr. is riding well at Turfway and gets the mount. He sports three wins and a place in five races at a mile, which is Friday’s distance. He’s my top choice of the main body of runners.

No. 7 King Valero joins Levanto and Lil Mateo as horses coming to Turfway via Mountaineer. Albin Jiminez is aboard and is winning at a 24% clip. King Valero finished third in a race won by No. 12 Spateacular Joe, a horse I won’t be using. While King Valero hasn’t won at Turfway or at a mile, he’s usable here.

No. 10 Junket should be well bet in this race and is a logical choice to add to the ticket. With two wins in three starts at the distance and a win in one start at Turfway Park, he’s probably going to be the favorite, especially with the trainer/jockey combo of Kim Hammond and Alex Achard doing well of late.

I’m heavy on front-runners here in the payoff leg.

At 15-1, No. 11 Madam Pie brings value, although she’s making her second career start off a promising fourth 51 days ago at Churchill Downs. She has John McKee in the saddle, and her pedigree suggests a route is where she needs to be. If alive to the final leg, she’ll be the one that pays the most on this ticket.

While the rail hasn’t been the best post position to draw early in the meet, Big Time Delivery may be good enough to overcome that. Her class drop, form, and speed figures puts her near the top of contenders in Race 5.

I’m using two Tom Drury horses in this race. No. 11 Madam Pie and No. 6 Estill are stablemates, and I think they’ll both be near the front of the field early. Estill is cutting back in distance and is in a steep class drop. She’s dangerous here.

No. 10 Macabre will probably be the chalk in the fifth race. The switch from turf to synthetic isn’t as concerning to me as a switch from dirt to synthetic first time, and this one has raced against much tougher coming in. She may be a little behind the early front-runners, but she should be right behind the first tier. Again, logical.

The ticket: 7 with 5,8 with 7,8,11 with 5,7,10,13 with 1,6,10,11