Photo: Dan Heary/Eclipse Sportswire
Saturday’s 11-race card at Saratoga is highlighted by the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds, featuring a clash of Early Voting, Epicenter, and Zandon. Horse Racing Nation Pro Reports are available for every track, every day and offer insight from a variety of different handicapping angles.
Two-year-olds open the day in Race 1. The First-Time Starter Insights Report looks at which sires and trainers do well with debut runners, as well as second-time-starters. The sire with the best win percentage in this field is Cross Traffic with his second-time-starters.
No. 3 Tatum (5-1 morning line) is the son of Cross Traffic in here. His offspring win at 17 percent after they’ve had one race, and they’re usually being under-bet as well. This results in a positive HRN Impact score of +19 percent. Trainer Daniel Velazquez has a high win rate of 20 percent with second-time-starters as well, making Tatum an intriguing wagering prospect.
Race 2 also features 2-year-olds, this time routing on the grass. The Post Position Bias Report shows that gate 3 has the highest win rate of 20 percent going this 1 1/16th miles distance on the inner turf. The outermost posts have struggled, but post 10 has a higher win percentage than posts 7-9.
Morning line favorite No. 6 C’Est Magnifique (3-1) shouldn’t be hampered by the gate he’ll break from. Post 6 has a win rate of 11 percent. Over the last 25, the win rate for post 6 has been even better at 16 percent.
In Race 4, the Horses to Single Report has landed on No. 8 Devilly (2-1) as one to rely on in those multi-race wagers. In this field of 11, the Sire Moves Report has identified four contenders that are unlikely to benefit under these conditions – a turf sprint.
Of those four, the shortest price on the morning line is No. 10 Hope Over Fear (8-1). This one’s sire Cupid has yet to produce a turf sprint winner of 12 to try the surface and distance. His turf routers win at 8 percent. The shortest distance Hope Over Fear has attempted in her career so far is 6 furlongs, and that was her worst performance so far on the grass, although against maiden special weight company.
No surprise that the Horses to Single Report has also identified No. 4 Jackie’s Warrior (1-5) as a reliable winner in Race 8, the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap. He’ll have an early advantage as well, according to the Pace Report. It doesn’t appear on paper that a taxing early tempo will ensue, and Jackie’s Warrior is likely to control early through reasonable fractions.
The Jim Dandy goes off as Race 9, where pace is projected to make the race as well. Another Horses to Single/Pace Report combo is highlighted here with No. 4 Early Voting (8-5). The Preakness winner looks to continue making his case as the top three-year-old male, and another win over Epicenter would help propel him towards those end of the year honors.
The final two races of the day are on the grass, and no jockey has been riding the surface better than Javier Castellano. According to the Hot Jockey Report, he’s winning at 26 percent on the turf. This is the highest win rate of any rider with more than 3 mounts.
His mounts are significantly outperforming their odds as well, resulting in a positive HRN Impact score of +115 percent. Bettors should take a longer look at No. 5 Shawdyshawdyshawdy (12-1) in Race 10 and No. 5 Barleewon (8-1) in Race 11.